How is a new route born? Interview with the Aviation Business Development of SEA Aeroporti di Milano

There is a tremendous amount of analysis and relationship work behind every single flight/destination. And every airport in the world has people in their lives who do just that.

At so-called hubs, that is, airports that have a 'home' carrier, such as Rome Fiumicino for ITA or Frankfurt for Lufthansa, this work is inevitably conditioned by the company that has its base at that airport. Elsewhere, however, route developers work as genuine free-riders.

This is the case of those who, for Sea Aeroporti di Milano, are in charge of developing long-haul (and beyond) from Malpensa airport, which since Covid has seen its long-haul traffic literally explode, both in terms of destinations connected and in terms of companies flying there.

Leading the team that 'grows' Malpensa (but also in the limited spaces possible, Linate) is Aldo Schmid, Head of Aviation Business Development at SEA, who is a true veteran of the industry, having led the team responsible for network development at Milan's airports for more than 20 years.

To him The Flight Club addressed the question that, perhaps, more than one passenger (and certainly the reader-types of TFC) must have asked themselves more than once while boarding an airplane: how does a new route 'come about'?

"We start with our own numbers and those of the Cirium platform, which analyzes existing or potential traffic volumes between any two pairs of airports in the world, paying attention especially to those routes on which there are no direct flights and at the same time also to the type of traffic and consequently to the 'profitability' of the connection, which will generally be higher where there is a significant component of business travelers and less where passengers are mostly tourists or those visiting relatives and friends."

How much does it matter not to have a reference vector?

"It means talking with mostly foreign companies and taking into consideration a number of factors each time that are different such as consistency with the carriers' strategy, availability of suitable aircraft, fleet development plans, macroeconomic and competitive dynamics, and then also traffic rights and slots. Ours is a progressive 'seeding' and the 'courtship' of a carrier can even take years before all conditions match, especially if we are talking about long-haul routes. To say, just a few years ago the success we are experiencing with Asian carriers was unthinkable."

Can you give us some examples of particularly long or complex 'courtships'?

"Vietnam Airlines' one on Hanoi has been a long time coming. We sensed its potential even before they started connections with Europe, but then it took about 20 years for one of their Boeing 787s to land at Malpensa. Even on United Airlines from Chicago we worked for several years, as well as in the case of Air Canada or Eva Air. In some cases traffic rights are the main obstacle. For example, China Eastern had expressed a willingness to fly from its Shanghai hub to Milan for several years before, on the regulatory side, the situation was unblocked. And the same had happened in the case of Singapore Airlines, which has now been a 'customer' of ours for some 20 years."

In which cases, however, are traffic rights not a factor, in the sense that there is an 'open skies' policy?

"The free market is there within the European Union, where all EU carriers can fly between any pair of cities. Similar, though somewhat less liberal, agreements exist between the EU and the United States, with the Balkan countries, with some non-EU Mediterranean countries, and with ASEAN countries."

Then there are the 'fifth freedom' flights ...

"Those are flights that operate with traffic rights between two cities in two countries other than that of the carrier, continuing from a flight originating from their hub or otherwise from the country in which an airline is based. This is the case, at Malpensa, of the Milan-New York operated by Emirates. For us, who do not have a 'hub carrier,' these flights are important and we are working for their number to increase in the years to come."

Where are you looking in this period to further increase Malpensa's portfolio of destinations and companies?

"To India, to Saudi Arabia, to Central Asia, as well as to the large North American and Far Eastern markets, but, I must say, almost everywhere, even to those regions and markets that today would seem almost 'hopeless,' such as Latin America, where Latam is doing very well on São Paulo but where otherwise there are carriers that are not very competitive and that do not have large and immediate fleet development plans and the existing traffic, with large component of tourists and VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives, ed.), although substantial in volume, is not particularly profitable for the companies. However, there are important flows, for example from countries such as Peru, Ecuador and Argentina that still push us to work on that continent. Sub Saharan Africa, on the other hand, is for now modest both in terms of carriers, Ethiopian Airlines and Kenya Airways aside, and in terms of traffic volumes excluding very few markets."

Could ITA Airways' entry into Star Alliance encourage the arrival of some alliance carriers at Malpensa, counting on the fact that Volare members will switch to Lufthansa's Miles & More and thus into Star 'orbit'? I am thinking, for example, of Avianca in Latin America....

"Star carriers at Malpensa are already quite numerous, however in the future it could be an additional stimulus. It is a scenario that is a bit premature but could actually reveal some new things in the years to come."

And will ITA see it again at Malpensa?

"On the short to medium term I would say no, given also how 'caught up' they are with all the issues consequent to their joining the Lufthansa Group. On the long term Milan is a rich market, with high profitability for those who operate there. I think it will also depend on what momentum the company's long-haul fleet development will have."

You, however, are making waves even without a home carrier. Can you give us some numbers of Malpensa's growth in recent years?

"On the seat supply side, we have had two consecutive years of double-digit growth, 2023 and 2024, while we estimate to close 2025 with about +8.5% over 2024 and over 19 million seats offered on departure, which is 24% more than pre-Covid. On long-haul alone we are at almost 4 million seats offered on departure with a +14% over 2024, which is the largest growth in long-haul seats among all the top 25 European airports. In this case, compared to pre-Covid, the growth was 29%. As for destinations served, we rank 10th among all European airports, eighth in long-haul destinations, and fourth in number of destinations in the Middle East and Asia, behind only London Heathrow, Paris Charles De Gaulle, and Frankfurt."

• New Routes