Chaos in Middle East: airlines to cut flights in summer over skyrocketing kerosene prices

For now, the effects of the war in Iran on the world of air transportation have been seen almost exclusively with the price increases in flights between Europe and Asia (and vice versa), a consequence of the Lower supply caused by the 'gridlock' of Gulf hubs. But with the summer season on the horizon, things could get much worse, especially if, as he said, Iran will maintain strict control over the transit of ships (including oil tankers) through the Strait of Hormuz, even after the war is (eventually) over.

At present, the transit of tankers, which was about sixty a day in February, has been reduced to a few, resulting in a collapse in the inflow of crude oil to some markets, including Europe. A slump that goes in the opposite direction of the demand boom that will be felt sharply starting in June and then again in July and August.

More demand translates into more flights, which in turn means more fuel consumption. But if fuel becomes scarce, prices soar (as, moreover, they are already doing), without considering the more extreme scenario of insufficient kerosene to meet summer demand.

From this point of view the worst-case scenario would be the United Kingdom, which would currently have kerosene reserves for three months; Germany and Italy would have reserves for at least seven months, Ireland and France for eight months.

Some companies are already taking countermeasures, or considering them ahead of the peak summer season. Thus, Ryanair (Europe's largest airline) CEO Michael O'Leary has predicted possible flight reductions in June, July and August, if the supply of jet fuel does not return to the usual supply. This is because higher fuel prices would affect ticket prices, which in turn would have depressing effects on demand from customers who are particularly price-sensitive (as are all low-cost passengers).

The Lufthansa Group is considering stopping between 20 and 40 planes. The worst-case scenario (that of 40 parked aircraft) would result in the 5.5% blocking of its aircraft. ITA, having the youngest, most modern and greenest fleet in the entire group (and also in all of Europe), should be sheltered from these measures, which could instead touch more heavily on the four-engine aircraft (A340-300 and A340-600) in the power of the group's own parent company, Germany's Lufthansa, which consume much more than widebody bireactors.

Scandinavian SAS, in March, has already slashed its operations, but in April the cuts will be far greater, as it has already planned to cancel a thousand flights within the month.

American United, The world's largest airline by fleet size, will reduce between April and September by 3% the flights operated at off-peak times and days, those where there is a physiological decline in demand.

In Asia, Vietnam Airlines (which operates a daily connection between Milan Malpensa and Hanoi, also used, of course, to travel to other popular summer destinations in the region such as Thailand and Indonesia) Has already suspended 7 domestic routes and 23 flights a week to save fuel, but does not rule out further cancellations in the next quarter if the price of jet fuel remains at current levels.

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