Middle East truce, IATA boss speaks. Fuel, Gulf hubs and ticket prices: what's next

It is a truce, very precarious and lasting only two weeks. Not a peace signed in ink on paper. Therefore, To think that the blizzard over air transportation has passed only because tonight the United States and Iran decided not to shoot at each other, everything they have (or almost) in their respective arsenals, Is a pure illusion.

Certainly, the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is good news, as the first signs of difficulties in the regular supply of fuel at some airports had already been glimpsed last week. But Companies' plans to deal with any shortage of jet fuel and/or sky-high prices for it have certainly not been thrown into the waste paper basket. The airline industry only works if it can predict and plan for the medium and long term. So, in fact, little has changed since the pre-alert launched at the end of last week.

Saying this this morning was the same president of IATA, Willie Walsh, who said that "it will take months, assuming everything goes in the right direction, for fuel supplies to return to normal, given the disruptions in refining capacity in the Middle East in recent weeks. I don't think everyone fully understood how concentrated the production capacity was in some parts of the world," Walsh added.

Instead, the International Air Transport Association's No. 1 said he was confident that "the Gulf hubs will recover, and very quickly." Provided, of course, that the two-week truce and peace talks are followed by the actual conclusion of the conflict. Of course, companies in the region will have to bring 'home' dozens and dozens of aircraft sent safely to some European airports and in some cases, instead, left parked where they were when the conflict erupted on Feb. 28. And it is clear that the whole mechanism of crew rotation will have to be brought back to full strength.

However, given the lingering uncertainty about what will happen two weeks from now, it is very likely that flights and destinations operated by the three Gulf biggies will yes gain altitude, but still remain far from what is called 'full capacity', both in terms of operating fleets and the destinations and frequencies with which those destinations are served.

However, it is possible that, as early as the next few days, downward bids to many destinations in Asia will be adjusted upward. While it will take time (and the return of the big three from the Gulf to 'full scale') for companies like Singapore Airlines, Thai, Cathay Pacific, and all those that have benefited from connecting Europe and Asia without having to make a stopover in the war zone, to bring prices back to normal.

In short, the worst-case scenario, for now, has been averted. But it will continue to be lived, de facto, by the day, until the United States and Iran put in writing the end of the conflict.

• middle east chaos